Bonuses at hedge funds and Wall Street firms are a topic of obsession in the financial press—and in New York generally. Whether they come in the form of Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein's $53.4 million haul last December, or in the form of a $1.7 billion payday for a top hedge-fund manager like James Simons of Renaissance Technologies, bonuses are important economic leading indicators for New York-area real estate brokers, art dealers, and gold diggers of all types. The ritual reporting of bonuses provokes envy in some, and self-loathing in many.

　　In recent years, the only question surrounding bonuses has been: how much

　　It's only August, and a lot can happen in four months. But for many in the Wall Street-Hedge Fund Industrial Complex, this year the question is likely to be: how little

　　Wall Street types receive paychecks every two weeks, but they really get paid once a year, typically in January. For many, the bonus can be 90 percent or more of total compensation. (In Wall Street parlance, this method of getting paid is called "getting paid.") Thanks to the recent stock market correction, the rolling credit crunch, and the subprime meltdown, we already know some people who won't be getting paid this year: the managers of Sowood Capital, the $3 billion hedge fund that went belly-up in July, along with employees of the two large hedge funds that went bankrupt.