Feb 28

　　Temperatures soared in Delhi this week. In politics, the season is changing too. A general election is not due until May 2009. But the prime minister can dissolve parliament when he chooses, and some signs—perhaps including the budget on February 29th—point to an early poll. It could come towards the end of this year.

　　The budget will almost certainly be the last for the Congress-led government of Manmohan Singh, the prime minister. An unstable coalition of a dozen parties, with “outside” support from others, it could easily be denied a vote-winning splurge next year. So it must splurge now. In a speech to mark the reopening of parliament on February 25th President Pratibha Patil hinted as much. She stressed the government's “special attention” to agriculture, which supports 60% of Indians.

　　Peasant farmers, burdened by the rising costs of inputs, meager crop prices and sometimes thoughts of suicide, were expected to receive debt forgiveness. A hike in India's massive and wasteful fertiliser subsidy would add another splash of electoral gravy. But to judge from the separate railways budget, unveiled on February 26th and offering modest fare cuts, the government has not abandoned prudence entirely. This suggests it may not yet have decided when to call the election. 漫长的“告别”开始了

　　本周德里的气温直线上升。在政治方面，气候也在改变。大选要到2009年的5月才举行。但是，总理能选择解散议会。有些迹象，包括2月29日审议的预算表明，可能会举行一次早期的民调，有可能在今年年底举行。

　　这次预算将几乎肯定是国会领导的曼莫汗·辛格总理的政府的最后一次了。这是一个不稳定的由12个政党组成的联合政府，得到“外部”的支持，但明年在投票中可能会被轻易地剥夺优势。因此，必须现在巩固优势。2月25日，在发表一个标志着重开议会的讲话中，普拉蒂巴·帕蒂尔总统也作了很多暗示。她强调，政府“特别关注”农业，这得到了60%印度人的支持。

　　农民因成本提高、农产品价格低廉的负担，有时产生自杀的念头。他们希望免除债务。印度大范围地提高浪费性的肥料补贴是又一个花钱拉选票的行为。但是，从2月26日公开的单独的铁路预算和对车票的适当降价来看，政府还没有完全放弃谨慎的政策。这意味着政府还没有决定何时举行选举。