Crude output is dropping faster than anticipated on a nasty mix of collapsing oil prices and the credit crunch. In a February report, Francisco Blanch, the Merrill Lynch oil analyst who called the July oil peak almost on the nose, says that at the current rate, global output could shrink by 30 million barrels a day by 2015. This means that every two years the world needs to replace an amount of crude output equivalent to Saudi Arabia's current production. The slide could push black gold prices higher as soon as 2010.