The Economist

　　经济学家

　　Feb 16

　　

　　Older workers want to retire later; companies fear they will soon be short of skills. Why can't the two get together

　　Last month the first baby-boomers turned 60. The bulky generation born between 1946 and 1964 is heading towards retirement. The looming “demographic cliff” will see vast numbers of skilled workers dispatched from the labour force. In a forthcoming book (“Workforce Crisis”) the authors paint a gloomy picture of a shortage of skills and a cut in the supply of labour that are “already threatening the performance of many corporations”.

　　The workforce is ageing across the rich world. Within the EU the number of workers aged between 50 and 64 will increase by 25% over the next two decades, while those aged 20-29 will decrease by 20%. In Japan almost 20% of the population is already over 65, the highest share in the world. And in the United States the number of workers aged 55-64 will have increased by more than half in this decade, at the same time as the 35- to 44-year-olds decline by 10%.

　　发达国家劳动力正在老化

　　老工人想迟一点退休；公司害怕它们不久会缺少技术工人。何不让两厢如愿？

　　上个月在婴儿潮时期最早出生的人年满60了。在1946年到1964年期间出生的数量庞大的那代人已步入退休年龄。从“人口统计学上的断层”的角度，我们将依稀看到数量巨大的熟练工人离开劳动力队伍。在即将出版的《劳动力危机》一书中，作者描绘了一幅缺少技术工人，劳动力供应不足的阴沉的画面。 “这已经威胁到了许多公司的业绩。”

　　发达国家都出现了劳动力老化的现象。在未来20年中，欧盟50岁到64岁之间的工人将增加25%，而20岁到29岁的工人将减少20%。在日本，超过65岁的人占人口的20%，这一比例是世界上最高的。在10年中美国55岁到65岁的工人将增加一半多，而35岁到44岁的人将减少10%。